conversely, if this is razor tight in florida, we might be in for a long night. florida will give us the key but also, north carolina, so important. ohio, and pennsylvania and what's important, donald trump has to win all four states. that is really his challenge tonight. if he somehow tries to pick off of michigan but again, he almost has to run the table tonight. >> let's talk about, donald trump said this will be brexit where the polling is flawed. nate silver, i think he gave people cardiac arrest on the democratic side. you've been consistent in providing our data. but could the polling just be that off? >> always, we've seen polls since i've been covering politics. sometimes they can be wrong but why the brexit analogy doesn't make sense. all the polling was 50% but didn't believe brexit would win but show it's a close race. i see hillary clinton having a bigger advantage than barack obama did in this time in the 2012. >> out of time, quickly, the senate. >> democrats need four seats. if hillary clinton wins, five if not. it's going to potentially be a 50/5